00:42.1
And before we start, I'd like to take the opportunity to congratulate you, my former student,
00:48.2
with your incredible vlog, no, and everything you're doing.
00:52.3
I'm very proud of your citizenship and leadership.
00:55.3
As a, not just a media personality, but also as a budding public intellectual, no?
01:01.3
And I'm very proud of that because you were my student.
01:04.1
Dati-dati, pasando-sando sandals ka lang sa klase ko.
01:06.9
Ngayon, social, meron ka ng vlog dag-i, oh.
01:10.0
And that you are being true to your own UP roots, no?
01:14.4
That you serve the people through your academic work, through your advocacy,
01:19.4
and through your, you know, your leadership as a media personality, as an influencer.
01:25.3
And I think that's really good, you know.
01:27.7
People may disagree with you or agree with you, but you're out there putting your reputation on the line
01:33.7
to inform, encourage people to converse, no?
01:39.5
To encourage people to take part in the discussion.
01:42.4
And that's, I'm very proud of that, no?
01:45.0
You're one of my few students who did very well in my class, and it's good to see that you're doing well now.
01:51.0
Thank you very much, Professor Ranjit.
01:53.5
And obviously, we'll talk about also your audience.
01:55.3
Your hat, which is your very executive position in now, a household name, survey agency, OCTA.
02:01.8
Pag-usapan natin later on.
02:03.0
Pero anong official designation niyo, Sir Ranjit, in OCTA?
02:07.0
Well, okay. In OCTA, I'm the president. I'm also a fellow.
02:10.8
As executive as you can get. Sorry, president. Yes.
02:14.8
Unfortunately, someone has to take that job, no?
02:17.3
Professor Guido David refuses to take that position.
02:21.0
He's the chief data scientist.
02:22.7
And maybe some of the people.
02:25.3
Maybe some of the people here, baka narinig niyo na kami, nung time ng COVID, kami yung gulo dyan, nagsasalita.
02:30.6
And our goal is truth-telling and truth-seeking as an organization.
02:35.1
So it started really with COVID, looking at how science and data can inform, empower citizens during the pandemic,
02:46.6
to what we have now, which is a full, you know, public, social science research organization,
02:53.3
a public opinion research organization.
02:55.3
It's called OCTA.
02:58.0
Prof, just shortly before we go to OCTA, and then go to, of course, the reason why we're together today, among others,
03:04.5
is yung nilabas niyo yung bagong survey kung saan pinapakita na, katulad nung ibang surveys,
03:09.2
authoritative surveys na nakita natin, na ang majority na ating mga kababayan ay bukas dito sa ICC probe, no?
03:14.7
Bago natin pag-usapan yan, una-una, of course, naging prof ko kayo sa Philippine politics,
03:19.6
Philippine politics and government.
03:22.2
Can you tell me a little bit about how did you end up in that role?
03:25.3
Kasi usual alam ko yung mga nagpupulsay, gusto nyo mag-international, comparative, dahil nakaka-dismayo yung politika natin, to be honest.
03:33.0
Like, what gave you the passion?
03:35.1
In the literature, ito yung low politics tawag dito, you know, high politics yung, you know, I'm on international relations.
03:41.6
My area of interest has been India-Philippines bilateral relations.
03:46.7
Our family has been, not just me, my father, my sister, I've been big contributors in that field, no?
03:55.1
So we've written all our research work in that area.
03:57.6
I mean, we've contributed our research work in that area.
04:01.1
My particular area of specialization in my graduate studies was public administration, public policy and program administration.
04:08.9
I know it sounds boring, no?
04:10.1
But it's important, no?
04:12.8
That we understand the policy process, that we understand that we have a role in shaping that policy process
04:18.2
in an emerging, growing, developing democracy like ours in the Philippines.
04:24.3
Okta came into four really because of a project that we had with eight other people, no?
04:30.4
Seven other people, including myself, no?
04:32.6
And our basic argument was that there should be an alternative voice in public opinion research.
04:40.2
And that's what we're trying to do now, no?
04:42.8
We're very much, okay, beholden to SWS and Pulse.
04:47.2
They've set the benchmark.
04:49.1
We're trying every day, no, to achieve, no, or come closer to that benchmark.
04:54.3
And in the last three years, you know, we're lucky, no?
04:59.2
Because we've been able to break, okay, the barrier as far as awareness is concerned.
05:06.2
And we're among the top three survey companies with the highest awareness as far as Filipinas are concerned.
05:13.1
So when you talk about Okta, the awareness in the national capital region is 7 out of 10 Filipinas.
05:17.9
Oh, wow. Yeah, yeah.
05:18.4
When you look at Okta awareness for the whole country, it's 6 out of 10.
05:23.0
And we're very proud.
05:24.3
We're proud of that because we achieved that in less than three years.
05:27.2
Developed a brand where we find truth-telling and truth-seeking as the basic foundation for our work.
05:35.6
So, you know, we were investigated in Congress for telling the truth, no? Basically.
05:40.2
Oh, I know that. I know that.
05:43.2
Sabi nga ng mga kaibigan namin sa our survey agency, they've been there for 30 years.
05:47.2
They were dreaming of being investigated by Congress, no?
05:50.1
Kami nga, we weren't even two years old and we were investigated by Congress.
05:54.5
For telling the truth.
05:55.5
And the last elections, 2022, I think we did extremely well.
06:00.0
100 percent batting average as far as the president, the vice president is concerned.
06:04.7
All the senators until the number 15, we got it right.
06:07.8
Except for the placement of Robin Padilla.
06:10.0
Only God knew that, no?
06:12.3
So, apart from that, you know, we've been, we've decided as an organization that it's our duty as citizens, no?
06:20.7
To contribute to this conversation.
06:24.3
arena of knowledge, no?
06:26.8
Our knowledge generation called public opinion research.
06:29.7
So, that's Okta for us.
06:31.0
And we're now moving forward, no?
06:34.7
As far as our surveys are concerned.
06:36.1
This is the second, almost three years now of surveys.
06:39.4
We've had, we're building up our database.
06:42.4
And hopefully, we will continue to do good as far as our advocacy and our research is concerned.
06:48.6
Prof. Ranjit, before going to the something major important surveys you have conducted,
06:54.4
recently, na public ngayon.
06:55.6
Kasi may mga commission surveys na hindi natin pwede pag-usapan.
06:58.3
Kasi, syempre, binayaran yun and may privileges and all that comes with it.
07:01.9
And I know, I mean, in a professional sense.
07:04.2
Ayun, yung term kasi ng bayaran na yung nag-negative na ngayon.
07:07.3
But before we go to that, can you tell us a little bit about bakit Okta?
07:11.8
What's with the, is it a number thing?
07:13.9
And then, the composition.
07:15.4
Because one of the things I remember is, the reason why Okta became a household name faster than any institution I know in the country.
07:21.9
Like, mas crazy pa yung meteoric.
07:24.4
Pa yung rise niya.
07:25.1
Is because you guys were doing analysis, epidemiological analysis at the height of the pandemic
07:31.6
in ways that no other agencies were doing.
07:33.7
And then, later on, mas naging transition kayo into full-fledged survey agencies.
07:37.5
How did that come about?
07:38.5
I mean, of course, you're a political scientist.
07:40.1
But a number of your colleagues I know are statisticians, David, mathematicians.
07:44.7
If I understand, there's some folks from UST or affiliated with UST who are in the public health realm.
07:49.4
Can you tell us a little bit about this?
07:50.5
Kasi, alam ko, medyo naging controversial lang una.
07:52.9
Sino itong Okta na ito?
07:54.3
Because everyone is citing them.
07:55.7
Sino ba itong mga ito?
07:56.6
Public health expert ba sila?
07:58.3
Are they epidemiologists or are they mathematicians?
08:00.9
So, for the purpose of clarifications and clarity, not that you need to defend yourself anymore.
08:05.2
You guys are big already.
08:06.6
But just for the purpose of our audience and all.
08:10.3
Ang Okta Research kasi, was the idea what founded in 2019.
08:16.1
It was an inspiration.
08:17.1
The inspiration here, you know, the eight other people, they don't want to be mentioned.
08:20.7
But, you know, my father, Dr. Roger Posadas.
08:23.8
Former Chancellor of UP Diliman was a big inspiration here.
08:29.7
Dr. Serafine Talisayon, who used to work with General Almonte as a Deputy National Security Advisor.
08:36.9
And some other individuals who don't want to be named.
08:39.6
Became an inspiration to us to start a public opinion research at one level.
08:47.9
And in a bigger, broader level, a social science research organization.
08:53.7
Faculty can, you know, freely express their positions, their research work.
08:59.2
Can be a vehicle, you know, for UP professors to come out and do research, you know.
09:03.9
So, this was the original inspiration for Okta that was in 2019.
09:09.1
And in 2020, unfortunately for us, or fortunately for us, we found a venue, you know.
09:13.7
Professor David Guido Davido in the Institute of Black was doing a research paper on the SER model, you know.
09:22.5
Which is used to the...
09:23.7
To study disease spread, no?
09:28.6
He was doing a journal article and asking me about the policy implications of doing this kind of research.
09:36.2
And we decided, no?
09:38.2
Because of the lockdown, which affected all of us, there were only two choices.
09:42.4
One is to contribute to the national effort to understand this pandemic.
09:47.5
Or to spend their time watching K-drama.
09:49.8
So, I mean, we decided with the former.
09:53.7
And we started doing, contributing, no?
09:57.5
To the conversation on a weekly basis, Richard.
10:00.2
On a weekly basis, we released our results.
10:03.4
We gave them to whoever wanted the results.
10:05.8
We gave it, of course, to IATF.
10:08.3
And it turned out that our projections, somebody at least on the internet began to see,
10:13.5
hey, our projections were doing, were on the spot, no?
10:16.9
With the nail on the head, no?
10:18.7
Very accurate with our projections.
10:22.5
And that's where...
10:23.5
That's where it started.
10:24.6
The advocacy to use science, no?
10:27.9
To empower citizens with information.
10:30.7
The belief that empowered citizens can make decisions in a democracy like ours.
10:36.4
And so, this became, you know, what was initially a science project became an advocacy.
10:43.8
And then, of course, we bolted out of, well, we separated from UP and decided to insulate UP from the kind of research.
10:53.5
We were doing as far as COVID was concerned.
10:55.9
And this led us to decide, hey, why don't we start doing public opinion research?
11:00.7
We're composed largely of natural scientists, mostly doctors, medical doctors.
11:06.4
But we have a team of around eight or ten...
11:11.9
Yeah, statistics, no?
11:13.6
And two, three mathematicians, no?
11:17.9
Graduate level, no?
11:19.4
So, everybody in our team is a graduate level.
11:22.5
It's a graduate of UP.
11:23.5
Except for one, Dr. Father Nicanor Ostriaco.
11:28.2
Who's a public health policy.
11:29.6
You know, he's an undergraduate in Pennsylvania and an MIT, PhD in MIT.
11:35.3
And he was a virologist, no?
11:39.4
Teaching in Providence College.
11:41.4
He was borrowed by UST.
11:42.8
Now, he was the only non-UP member of the team.
11:47.1
And so, most of our own faculty from UP composed of the research.
11:53.5
Largely, it's a UP organization.
11:56.5
But of course, we're very proud of our fellows.
11:59.9
All of them did volunteer work for COVID research.
12:04.8
So, it should be around 15 to 20 members and fellows right now.
12:09.9
We're actively involved still with the advocacy and work of UP.
12:15.3
Thank you for giving that kind of background, no?
12:17.6
Because I think at the beginning, may konting confusion.
12:20.3
Ito ba'y OCTA-UP or OCTA-Separate?
12:22.9
So, na-explain...
12:23.4
So, na-explain niyo yung evolution niya.
12:25.7
I also remember, as someone who doesn't overproduce his stuff,
12:30.2
nalala ko, there was a time na yung website niyo, parang hindi pa ganon ka-kompleto.
12:34.3
Alam ko, gumagahan pa kayo ng mga template pictures.
12:38.7
I mean, I don't know now.
12:39.7
Our website has been hacked a couple of times.
12:42.6
So, that's why we're moving towards a more secure platform.
12:46.7
You know, we're public school teachers.
12:50.2
We're public opinion research.
12:51.8
We're so unprepared.
12:52.9
And so unprofessional, I have to admit.
12:55.5
When it comes to doing this kind of work, so we had to hire a couple of people.
13:00.0
And we found out, also from our research, that a lot of people really go to Facebook, TikTok.
13:05.1
And so, we're developing our presence there.
13:08.1
And we apologize to the public if we haven't updated our website
13:12.1
because it's constantly being hacked and attacked.
13:15.1
You won't believe, no?
13:16.8
Our own provider is already complaining.
13:19.6
He's putting too much manpower and time
13:21.9
just defending the website.
13:22.9
So, we will be coming out with a better site.
13:27.0
We're in the process of coming out with a better site
13:29.1
with an actual database of everything we have done.
13:33.0
And pretty soon, once after a year,
13:36.4
a lot of the work that has been embargoed
13:38.6
will now be available to the public.
13:41.0
And the ethos of OCTA is really academic in nature.
13:44.7
So, we were the first, our own fellows were the first
13:48.0
to publish COVID-related,
13:51.4
in an international journal, COVID-related studies.
13:57.3
We've been at the forefront of trying to generate
14:01.2
a scientific output from our statistical data.
14:09.1
So, we've published quite a number of journal articles already
14:14.1
And so, we're still trying to generate that.
14:16.1
So, this is the mindset of OCTA.
14:18.9
We're here to contribute.
14:20.7
We're here to collaborate.
14:21.4
We're not here to compete with the top two.
14:24.9
We recognize the top two firms, Pulse Asia and SWS.
14:29.7
What we want to do, Richard, is for social scientists like you
14:32.7
to come out with three surveys.
14:35.7
Most of the survey companies, they overlap in survey periods.
14:42.2
So, we wanted to always, we were always studying.
14:44.8
My swing boat, just in case.
14:46.6
Yeah, tiebreaker.
14:48.3
I'll be the tiebreaker, the validator.
14:50.1
So, OCTA will come out.
14:51.4
OCTA will come out last, normally.
14:53.2
And like last year, we ended, we have the latest survey
14:56.6
for the fourth quarter for the whole country.
14:58.3
If you're just looking at SWS, Pulse, and OCTA.
15:01.5
And what came out, of course, is what has been in the news,
15:04.6
all over the news today.
15:06.7
Number one, Filipinos want to rejoin the ICC.
15:12.0
And number two, that Filipinos are supported, no,
15:15.3
of the call for government to cooperate with the ICC investigations
15:21.4
drug-related killings that happened during the last administration.
15:27.6
I think we're already transitioning.
15:29.1
Thank you for my co-host for overseeing the transition.
15:32.7
I just wanted, you know, I mean, Prof. Ranja,
15:36.1
I look forward to having more of these conversations
15:37.9
quite regularly over time, as long as you have time
15:40.2
and then you're open.
15:40.9
So, kaya nga sabi ko, parating ginagawa ko is, you know,
15:43.4
a little bit of a background, understanding,
15:45.5
para lang ng tao, hindi lang tayo yung nag-hello-hi lang
15:47.9
dahil lang nagtetrend din yung report niyo ngayon.
15:50.2
That this goes back to...
15:51.3
personal and institutional ties for quite some time.
15:54.6
And I also commend you guys for doing a fantastic job.
15:57.6
I was just in Tokyo the other weekend.
15:59.5
There was a new institute of geoeconomics
16:01.7
and it was established by the senior professors
16:03.4
from University of Tokyo.
16:04.9
And they were telling us how everyone is threatened by them
16:07.4
because, you know, they just came out of nowhere.
16:09.7
And they're so, for the lack of a better term,
16:12.2
very American, right?
16:13.2
You go there, they're very open, it's in a posh area.
16:16.5
It's not your typical Japanese institutions and all.
16:19.2
And they're doing very well.
16:21.3
Meron silang surveys of top 100,
16:23.9
parang Fortune 100 of Japan.
16:26.7
So, I think the past 2, 3, 5 years
16:28.7
has been the age of disruption.
16:30.5
And many people out of nowhere,
16:32.9
many institutions out of nowhere have been doing very well
16:34.8
as long as they had those foundations.
16:36.8
So, your experience reminds me of what's happening
16:39.1
also in Tokyo and all around the world.
16:40.6
And, of course, in my case, in my own small way also,
16:43.2
you know, the past few years,
16:44.1
I also tried to build some sort of niche here and all of that.
16:46.5
Now, pag-usapan natin itong mga surveys.
16:48.9
Kasi, to be honest,
16:50.4
ang survey age...
16:51.3
The whole survey business nowadays
16:54.1
has come under a lot of skepticism and all.
16:56.8
I mean, alam natin sa Pilipinas,
16:58.6
I mean, you know, more than anyone.
17:00.0
Sa Pilipinas, walang natatalo.
17:01.5
Natadayaan lang or nananalo.
17:03.3
But one of the things we noticed in last elections,
17:05.9
things got very, very toxic.
17:07.9
And from people that we should have known better,
17:09.7
I mean, some of them are from our institution,
17:11.9
you know, they were trying to invoke,
17:14.1
I don't know, like Google Trends
17:15.9
or all sorts of different big data stuff.
17:18.8
And there were also some very malicious,
17:21.3
let's say, attacks against some of our friends and colleagues,
17:23.7
including against our good friends in Paul's Asia,
17:25.8
si Ronnie Holmes.
17:27.2
May goodness, the amount of stress
17:28.3
he had to go through throughout the years.
17:30.3
So, having said that,
17:33.0
yung sumabag kayo dito sa eksena
17:36.4
ng political surveys and all of that,
17:38.9
what was your state of mind?
17:40.3
Was your state of mind also about,
17:42.0
you know, fighting for this?
17:43.6
Because if we're not gonna do
17:45.1
evidence-based policy analysis,
17:47.7
evidence-based political analysis,
17:49.0
and then, kwentong barabera na lang tayong lahat.
17:50.7
Although, maganda yung...
17:51.3
Maganda yung bang kwentong barbero.
17:52.8
There are levels to it.
17:53.7
I mean, how did you navigate also
17:55.5
that very toxic environment?
17:57.0
Dahil, syempre, kung ayaw kayo digong,
17:58.7
tapos yung surveys na,
17:59.6
si digong mataas,
18:00.7
inisan tao sa'yo.
18:01.7
Kung mababa si digong,
18:03.2
galit naman yung kabila.
18:04.4
So, in a polarized environment,
18:07.1
it was very difficult getting into this world.
18:09.0
Can you tell me a little bit also about that
18:10.5
before we go to this very sensitive issue of ISIS?
18:12.5
It was extremely challenging
18:13.1
because, number one,
18:15.4
this was something that everyone in OCTA agreed
18:18.2
would be our direction.
18:19.9
In fact, there was a...
18:21.2
a big, lively debate about it.
18:27.6
truth-telling and truth-seeking
18:28.8
is really a lonely job at some level.
18:31.8
You know this, although.
18:33.0
You're trying your best to do this also yourself.
18:37.3
we got investigated by Congress.
18:39.0
There was an inquisition against us.
18:41.1
And it's so unfortunate
18:43.3
because all we were doing
18:45.7
was telling the truth.
18:47.7
the proof of the pudding is really in the eating.
18:49.5
In this kind of work,
18:51.0
legitimacy is so important.
18:54.8
Integrity is so important.
18:56.5
And I think we were able to prove that.
18:59.5
We had the same struggles with SWS and Pulse
19:02.8
who have been here for decades.
19:05.0
In the run-up to the 2022 elections,
19:07.7
nobody believed us.
19:08.6
They believed in the KALYA surveys.
19:11.0
But when the results came...
19:12.0
But ang taas ng views.
19:13.0
Ang daming umaman sa mga KALYA survey na kilala.
19:16.0
Million-million views.
19:18.0
Yeah, at some point,
19:20.9
the Institute of Statistics
19:21.5
had to come up with a statement
19:23.8
basically exhorting people
19:26.9
to look at the science of this.
19:29.5
That this is not just
19:30.3
haka-haka-kuro-kuro.
19:35.4
like what we were doing with COVID,
19:38.1
our research there,
19:40.8
We had to really inform the public.
19:44.6
we were proven correct.
19:46.4
All the survey companies
19:47.4
were proven correct.
19:48.2
And we were very proud
19:49.3
of our work in Okta.
19:50.9
We came out with,
19:52.2
three weeks before the election,
19:58.1
We were, by the way,
19:59.0
surprised by that also, no?
20:00.8
We knew he was going to win,
20:02.0
but to win that big,
20:03.7
It was incredible, no?
20:05.8
The actual vote was 58.7, Richard.
20:12.2
we're extolling the science here.
20:15.7
very near what we predicted.
20:18.5
And our top 12 senators
20:21.1
exactly how we predicted.
20:23.3
Some survey companies
20:25.2
missed one or two candidates,
20:26.7
but Okta did not miss a single one.
20:31.6
as an organization,
20:33.5
but I guess it was
20:34.3
the science of statistics
20:36.2
that won the day.
20:38.6
And I don't think there's
20:41.7
who question surveys now.
20:43.2
What they question now, Richard,
20:45.7
of the survey company.
20:47.3
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
20:50.7
SWS and Pulse are there,
20:52.7
and we can continue to validate
20:54.1
what they come out with.
20:55.3
Cross-referencing.
20:56.1
Cross-referencing.
20:56.6
We have to cross-validate.
20:58.3
And the more the merrier,
20:59.4
because in the United States,
21:01.8
there are like nine Rasmussen.
21:05.6
A lot, yeah, yeah, yeah.
21:06.6
A lot of people are confused.
21:07.6
That's why there's a median, right?
21:08.7
They have a median
21:11.6
You look at the website
21:13.1
like Real Clear Politics
21:14.7
in the United States
21:16.3
five or six survey companies
21:20.1
open to the public,
21:20.9
they're compared,
21:22.5
and people get a good picture
21:25.2
the political landscape,
21:26.6
they get a good view
21:28.3
of the political context,
21:33.2
surveys have a democratizing effect.
21:37.6
people are never consulted.
21:40.4
After the candidate wins,
21:43.0
hindi na pinapansin
21:43.8
yung mga butante.
21:44.8
Pero dito sa survey,
21:47.6
May feedback loop.
21:50.1
So, nang nakakarami.
21:52.9
our leaders listen to surveys.
21:55.2
You won't believe.
21:57.9
that will come out
21:58.9
with a report, no?
22:00.5
20% of our voters
22:04.8
because of what they
22:05.9
learn from the surveys.
22:08.3
We'll try to come out
22:08.9
with that result, no?
22:10.7
And validate that it's all
22:12.3
Let's have a separate episode
22:13.5
on that, perhaps.
22:15.7
We'll give you the report
22:17.8
So, another thing
22:20.2
is that, you know,
22:23.8
because if they're done
22:25.7
and scientifically
22:26.4
using the best practices,
22:29.4
enough survey companies
22:31.0
you can validate that,
22:37.0
is thinking about issues.
22:43.2
where we want to go,
22:47.0
But where we want to go
22:48.2
is hard to answer
22:50.1
and what we think
22:52.2
So, surveys contribute
22:54.3
who we are as a people,
22:55.9
what our sentiments are
22:57.0
on different issues,
22:58.4
on a range of issues.
22:59.9
And if there are enough
23:00.7
good survey companies,
23:01.8
and there are good
23:02.4
survey companies there,
23:03.5
as the Blessed Pals
23:04.7
survey companies,
23:07.8
OCTA is trying to
23:11.4
and build a reputation
23:16.1
reputable survey companies.
23:17.8
I think the science,
23:21.0
People will continue
23:25.6
that underlies surveys,
23:27.3
and will be better informed
23:31.8
are thinking about this issue.
23:34.0
on democracy and development.
23:35.4
But Professor Rai,
23:36.7
just to push back again,
23:39.9
but just the devil's advocate,
23:41.2
what about this argument
23:41.8
of mind conditioning?
23:43.8
an interesting number
23:45.2
of academic papers
23:46.3
on the trending effect
23:48.7
that so many people
23:49.0
may have in terms of
23:50.3
making you realize
23:51.7
this candidate is not viable,
23:53.4
so I'll just go with the others.
23:54.4
What do you say about that?
23:55.7
The bandwagoning effect
23:56.8
that could happen here?
23:57.5
Yeah, the bandwagon effect.
23:58.7
We haven't seen it yet.
24:00.5
We haven't seen...
24:02.1
Well, we're studying it, Richard.
24:04.1
I have to be very honest.
24:05.5
We're looking into it.
24:07.1
We haven't accepted
24:08.3
anybody's position on the issue.
24:10.3
We have a couple of quarters now
24:12.8
of survey results
24:14.4
that show that it's nominal.
24:17.1
The bandwagon effect is nominal.
24:19.0
But it's not insignificant.
24:21.0
There are people who get...
24:22.1
I just told you about the percentage.
24:23.8
There are people who change
24:24.7
their vote largely
24:27.9
because of what they learn
24:29.5
from the surveys.
24:30.2
But it's not majority
24:31.1
of our population.
24:32.9
And it also, you know,
24:35.9
Filipino people are not votative.
24:38.0
Even on this issue of ICC,
24:39.6
you can see, you know,
24:40.1
if you give them an awareness
24:42.9
So in this particular survey,
24:45.3
we had an explanatory card
24:46.9
that basically told people
24:49.0
our interviewees,
24:50.4
this is what the ICC is.
24:52.3
It's basic function
24:53.5
in protecting rights.
24:55.3
We were once a member.
24:57.6
So then we asked a basic question.
24:58.7
Do you think we should...
24:59.5
But we're not anymore the member.
25:00.9
Should we rejoin?
25:02.4
That's a basic question.
25:03.3
Once you inform them,
25:04.7
they have a position.
25:05.5
And when you look at the survey results,
25:07.1
there's not too much gray area, no?
25:09.7
It's either they're for or against.
25:11.2
Majority are for rejoining the ICC.
25:13.9
Can we go to your surveys, Professor?
25:16.2
Can we screen share
25:17.9
for the purpose of...
25:20.1
obviously now people are just hearing you,
25:21.6
but the finalist version
25:22.7
will have it all out there
25:24.5
hindi sila naka-access dito.
25:26.0
So tingnan natin muna yung mga data, no?
25:28.4
In the interest of...
25:29.2
Can you see it, Richard?
25:32.0
I think it's still loading.
25:33.8
Can you try it again?
25:34.9
Let me just see if we can...
25:37.7
Yeah, is that good?
25:44.2
is a fourth quarter survey.
25:47.4
Which means it was done in December.
25:49.0
Off the survey, yeah.
25:50.1
And we released it only in Feb.
25:53.0
And the probe is on the ICC.
25:55.0
It's investigation in the Philippines.
25:56.9
So what were the...
25:57.6
Okay, so what's important here to understand
26:00.7
is these numbers would have changed by now.
26:03.9
These numbers would have changed by now
26:05.6
because of so much that has happened
26:08.8
Okay, so this is just the fourth quarter.
26:11.0
And what is it saying?
26:13.2
On the question of rejoining
26:15.5
the International Criminal Court,
26:19.0
are in favor of rejoining
26:20.7
the International, the ICC.
26:24.5
that's a significant number,
26:26.2
who are not in favor.
26:27.5
So there's a position.
26:30.0
in this particular survey,
26:31.7
there are more people
26:32.5
who want to rejoin the ICC.
26:35.8
on the question of cooperating
26:37.3
with the International Criminal Court
26:39.6
in its investigation
26:41.0
of drug-related killings
26:42.5
during the Duterte administration,
26:45.3
55% of adult Filipinos
26:49.8
cooperating with the ICC.
26:54.3
are not in favor.
26:55.4
So it's really tight.
26:56.5
It's really divisive.
26:57.6
It's really important.
27:00.1
Interesting, yeah.
27:00.7
There's an opinion on this issue.
27:04.0
Especially when you make them aware
27:05.7
or remind them of the issue.
27:07.9
So ang konti ng undecided,
27:09.2
which is quite different
27:10.1
from the impression you get
27:11.4
from some of the other discussions
27:13.5
Mukhang ito very polarized.
27:16.4
We were also surprised ourselves.
27:18.8
And you look at the spread,
27:22.0
as far as the regional
27:29.0
And then the class element,
27:32.6
Across the board,
27:35.1
it's majority of people
27:38.6
including Mindanao.
27:41.8
there's a margin of error
27:43.4
of plus, minus three.
27:48.1
even if you find out
27:49.5
you'll see that majority of Filipinos
27:52.7
or see the importance
27:55.2
the International Criminal Court.
27:57.9
And I think that's important for us.
28:04.8
age is concerned,
28:13.2
you see a large number
28:18.7
particularly supporting
28:19.4
rejoining the ICC.
28:22.9
So, ang pinakamataas,
28:27.5
Yeah, of those we were,
28:28.6
yeah, of that age group.
28:30.1
when you look at the population,
28:31.3
it's really below 35 years old,
28:33.5
the bulk of the population.
28:35.3
And when you look at that,
28:36.2
it's fairly clear
28:37.3
that more than half, no?
28:39.1
Of the population,
28:40.8
or majority of the population,
28:42.4
are open to this.
28:45.0
if this will change
28:46.1
in the forthcoming survey
28:49.1
that will be conducted
28:52.5
it could go down.
28:54.4
But what we do know
28:55.4
is that this validates
28:58.1
what SWS is also seeing.
29:05.0
with the probe, right?
29:05.9
That's what I gathered
29:08.2
Just a point lang,
29:09.9
pwede balikan natin ng konti?
29:11.3
what is your read
29:12.2
on the millennials
29:16.7
almost 7 out of 10,
29:18.2
mas mababa ng 57.
29:20.0
Is there something there?
29:22.7
is there a sociological
29:25.2
Maybe we'll suspend
29:26.3
the analysis of that
29:27.9
until our next survey.
29:28.6
We have more data.
29:29.2
We can get the trend
29:31.2
At least we can study
29:32.8
see how things are changing.
29:34.6
is this the first survey
29:39.6
Oh, kasi trajectory
29:42.8
this is the first.
29:43.6
And only two questions,
29:48.2
a question of awareness.
29:51.6
an information card
29:54.3
read to our interviewers,
29:55.7
explaining what the ICC
29:59.9
maybe we'll change that
30:03.7
Maybe add more questions.
30:05.6
So, this is how it looks,
30:10.7
gender is concerned.
30:14.9
There are more people
30:15.9
in the rural areas.
30:16.8
It's interesting,
30:18.6
To believe we are in the ICC.
30:20.3
Correct, correct.
30:22.6
the human rights aspect of it,
30:24.8
protection aspect
30:30.8
and college graduates.
30:31.6
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
30:34.9
predictable because
30:36.1
these are people who are
30:37.4
the more educated,
30:41.9
The more awareness
30:45.2
Now, on the second question,
30:46.6
should the government
30:48.2
This is a big question
30:49.0
raised by the president
30:52.4
Of course, we all know that
30:53.3
all of that has changed
30:55.3
The president has a
30:56.1
completely different position
30:58.6
And we see this as,
31:00.7
people, you know,
31:01.4
taking my hat off.
31:03.0
You begin to question
31:03.9
whether this is about
31:04.7
principle or leveraging
31:07.5
The changing position
31:08.5
of our chief executive
31:13.3
a change of heart,
31:20.9
our position on the ICC.
31:27.3
majority of the population
31:29.2
want the government
31:32.6
with the investigation
31:34.8
drug-related killings
31:37.6
Duterte administration.
31:43.6
This is very different
31:45.2
from the first table.
31:46.0
We have lower numbers
31:51.3
We have a slightly
32:00.4
the socioeconomic
32:02.1
classes are concerned.
32:11.6
this is significant
32:12.2
because we didn't expect
32:13.4
this kind of result.
32:24.0
I find it interesting
32:29.2
and then Mindanao
32:32.0
which just tells you
32:33.9
this geographical aspect.
32:34.9
But, I want to ask,
32:35.5
I don't see it here,
32:37.6
a Mindanao spread?
32:38.9
the Davao region,
32:41.0
versus, let's say,
32:42.5
Northern Mindanao.
32:44.0
Yeah, let's look at it.
32:44.7
Yeah, let's look at that.
32:45.6
Yeah, let's look at that.
32:46.4
That's interesting.
32:48.0
That's interesting.
32:54.7
So, you're seeing
32:55.6
that there's a position
32:59.2
there's a regional
33:00.5
Bay-Liwick aspect.
33:02.7
But, we don't know.
33:04.1
an initial baseline survey
33:08.1
with another survey
33:14.1
we'll provide you
33:15.2
see these changes.
33:16.6
West Philippine Sea Survey,
33:17.8
I don't know if you got it.
33:19.1
We sent it to you.
33:21.5
Do you want to discuss that also?
33:23.0
You've changed, no?
33:23.5
Over the last three quarters,
33:28.4
the Philippine public
33:30.5
what are the three,
33:31.6
what are the measures
33:32.4
government should look into
33:39.3
West Philippine Sea.
33:40.6
Number one was always,
33:42.8
through diplomatic means.
33:44.8
That's around 70%.
33:47.8
That's the number one measure,
33:51.3
or menu of measures.
34:00.8
naval and troop presence
34:04.1
Always number two.
34:06.6
modernizing the military.
34:08.5
In the last quarter,
34:11.3
For the first time,
34:14.9
our military presence,
34:16.4
naval and military,
34:17.8
and the troop presence
34:19.2
became number one.
34:22.2
if I'm not mistaken,
34:23.7
that was a six-point increase.
34:26.2
Which clearly had something
34:27.4
with what happened
34:31.8
the information provided
34:33.4
by the armed forces,
34:36.3
on what's really happening
34:37.3
in the West Philippine Sea.
34:39.3
the position now is,
34:40.9
we'll have a dual-track approach,
34:42.7
but I think we should emphasize,
34:44.1
the public is saying
34:44.9
to the government,
34:45.6
we should emphasize
34:51.6
in our own survey,
34:53.1
that was defined as
34:55.5
and troop presence
34:56.7
in the West Philippine Sea.
34:58.3
And the distant fourth,
34:59.6
but still significant,
35:01.3
was joint military
35:05.3
with allied countries.
35:07.1
the government is doing
35:09.7
exactly what people,
35:13.2
are saying it should be,
35:15.2
it should prioritize.
35:16.7
When you look at the
35:20.8
with the government's response
35:22.2
in the West Philippine Sea,
35:26.0
for two quarters.
35:27.8
the trend shifted
35:33.1
surveys are important,
35:37.8
government information,
35:43.0
how it's performing
35:46.1
a military operation.
35:48.7
there are a myriad issues,
35:49.7
a plethora of issues
35:50.8
that challenge it
35:52.4
or challenge our government.
35:54.5
that's what we're seeing.
35:55.4
We're seeing that
35:59.8
the public is engaged
36:02.2
and that they will change
36:03.3
their own position.
36:06.0
Yeah, I brought it back
36:06.9
because we're already discussing
36:08.0
a different survey
36:09.0
that's in the West Philippine Sea.
36:10.4
Do you have a copy
36:11.1
of the West Philippine Sea one
36:12.2
that you want to share right now?
36:13.1
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
36:13.7
We can show that.
36:15.9
Because it's still in the ICC.
36:17.7
Can you please share that?
36:20.3
But I'll look for it
36:21.8
while we're talking about it.
36:24.4
But what I want to emphasize
36:26.6
is that what we're seeing now
36:28.2
is just the fourth quarter.
36:34.2
a public perception,
36:37.1
dynamic as it is,
36:40.1
because of the information
36:41.5
and because of the, you know,
36:44.8
informing the public
36:45.7
what's really happening.
36:47.7
This is the impact, no?
36:50.7
Changing perceptions on the issue.
36:52.9
We saw this dramatic change
36:54.6
in our West Philippine Sea probe.
36:58.2
We're seeing it now in the ICC
37:00.7
if we're to follow
37:02.5
the findings of another survey agency,
37:07.8
And the good thing about this
37:09.3
is that we're validating
37:13.2
So we're seeing the same thing,
37:14.8
although we ask different questions.
37:17.7
we're seeing a confluence, no?
37:19.5
Of perceptions on this issue.
37:22.1
And while this is just a snapshot,
37:25.1
it could consolidate even more
37:27.7
in the next survey, okay?
37:29.4
Or it could change completely, no?
37:32.7
So that's why it's important
37:34.3
we do this quarterly.
37:37.1
share data to the public
37:39.1
so we can compare, no?
37:41.1
So this is where we are now.
37:43.2
We're hoping that
37:44.1
we can continue to
37:46.4
provide information
37:48.1
on myriad issues, no?
37:50.4
Including those that we discussed, no?
37:52.5
Professor Ray, I mean,
37:53.5
I think now we're going to transition
37:54.9
to the part where I want you
37:56.0
to put your political analyst hat, right?
37:58.3
As one of the leading analysts.
38:00.7
you're the octa-president guy talking
38:02.9
and I appreciate that
38:04.1
because we have to look at the numbers.
38:07.3
the good thing is that
38:07.9
as you mentioned,
38:08.7
we already have data
38:09.6
longitudinal almost,
38:10.9
I remember very well
38:11.7
because I write a lot
38:13.0
on the West Philippine Sea issue.
38:15.0
established in Pulse Asia,
38:16.3
pretty consistent.
38:17.0
Even yung panonidigong
38:20.2
out of 10 Filipinos
38:21.7
wanted us to take a tougher stance
38:23.3
on the West Philippine Sea issue.
38:25.0
Which was quite divergent
38:26.5
former President Duterte
38:29.2
The ICC one is quite different.
38:31.1
because SWS1 is showing
38:32.8
that from quarter 2,
38:34.1
Q2 to Q4 of last year,
38:36.3
there was some upward trajectory
38:37.8
in terms of support
38:39.3
for the probe in ICC.
38:41.1
Which I think is important.
38:43.9
we have many interesting people
38:45.3
from different sides.
38:46.6
supporters of the ICC.
38:47.0
Duterte are commenting
38:48.7
Actually, I'm also live
38:49.6
on TikTok saying that,
38:50.8
well, that doesn't say
38:52.5
ma-arresto si Digong.
38:53.7
I mean, we're not saying that.
38:54.6
Yeah, that's true.
38:55.6
Just to be clear.
38:56.5
That's a very important point.
38:58.2
Our survey is not talking about that.
38:59.7
In fact, we failed
39:00.5
to ask that question.
39:02.4
But SWS, I think,
39:05.4
something similar to that.
39:08.8
a very different result.
39:11.7
general agreement,
39:12.6
that we should rejoin the ICC,
39:14.6
that we should cooperate
39:16.2
in seeking justice
39:18.7
for those who are wrong
39:20.1
in the drug wars,
39:22.1
it's a completely
39:23.6
when you talk about
39:24.8
jailing the ex-president.
39:29.0
we have no data on.
39:30.3
Exactly, exactly.
39:33.4
that was important
39:34.0
because I remember
39:34.4
the moment I shared
39:36.3
immediately, you know,
39:37.9
the usual suspects
39:39.3
attack me and say,
39:40.8
you didn't mention
39:42.0
I think only a plurality,
39:44.7
said they trust the ICC.
39:48.6
spin game na lang ito, no?
39:51.6
you want to emphasize?
39:53.3
ang analysis ko dito is,
39:55.1
well, at the very least,
39:56.9
I mean, you're free
39:57.5
to disagree with me,
39:59.6
at the very least,
40:01.0
yung mga attack nila
40:02.4
Digong and Duterte's side,
40:07.0
while they may not
40:08.2
be complete trust
40:10.9
of how they handle
40:11.5
the Duterte issue,
40:12.9
at the same time,
40:13.3
the majority are also
40:14.2
not agreeing with Duterte
40:20.1
violating our sovereignty.
40:21.4
that's the stance
40:23.9
including the one
40:24.6
who topped the Senate
40:27.1
in defiance of most surveys
40:33.3
can be interpreted
40:34.5
in different ways
40:36.3
I also wanted to see
40:37.7
and the trend lines.
40:41.5
But this is where
40:42.3
I want to ask the question,
40:43.6
this is where I want to come in
40:45.2
as political analyst,
40:46.0
as political scientist
40:51.5
Because if you want to,
40:53.4
kasi akin ganito,
40:54.6
the problem we have had
40:56.9
is that people are not
40:57.6
looking at the nuances
41:00.7
pro-Duterte influencers
41:02.0
that we have to also emphasize
41:03.3
yung trust issues
41:05.4
But in the same breath,
41:07.2
during the Digong time,
41:08.1
there was also that problem.
41:09.6
if you look at the surveys
41:11.8
for Duterte's drug war,
41:15.3
At the same time,
41:16.0
95% in Metro Manila
41:17.8
and more than 8 out of 10
41:18.9
in other major regions
41:21.6
na magkaroon ng EJK.
41:22.8
They want the drug suspects
41:24.7
And more than 7 out of 10
41:26.0
said they're fearful
41:27.0
that they'll be a victim
41:29.0
So that clearly tells you
41:30.6
for Duterte's drug war
41:31.5
also was very nuanced.
41:33.0
It was not a categorical support,
41:35.1
both means and ends.
41:36.7
It was very conditional.
41:38.8
So I think this is why
41:40.8
we analyze the surveys
41:44.2
to just emphasize
41:45.0
one side or the other.
41:46.0
So I take the critique
41:47.5
but I also want to say
41:48.5
you didn't do that
41:50.4
so it's fair to have
41:51.4
this kind of conversation.
41:52.5
First, what is your read on that?
41:53.7
This kind of conditionality nuances
41:55.4
that interpretation of that?
41:57.3
I agree with you.
41:59.2
there are two levels there.
42:01.2
The framing of the survey questions
42:08.6
Pilipinas are not stupid.
42:11.6
They're discerning,
42:12.4
intelligent people.
42:17.1
nobody's for drugs.
42:19.3
Nobody wants to go home
42:20.6
in their Escanitas
42:25.3
Nobody wants their communities
42:26.5
controlled by narco.
42:29.2
Nobody wants to have
42:30.7
but that doesn't mean
42:31.9
that you can't balance
42:34.1
that advocacy against drugs
42:35.7
with protecting rights.
42:38.0
So this is a big issue
42:41.0
survey after survey,
42:42.8
even in our surveys,
42:47.4
for most Filipinos.
42:51.2
but not at the expense
42:52.7
of violating our rights.
42:54.8
And at some level,
42:59.7
with protection of rights.
43:01.9
So it's coming out
43:03.7
it's coming out today.
43:07.9
from other survey firms.
43:09.6
And it's important
43:11.3
for us to constantly
43:17.1
yeah, you're right,
43:17.7
it's nuanced, no?
43:20.4
There's always a degree
43:21.1
of ambivalence there
43:22.1
where analysis has to come in.
43:23.6
But speaking of ambivalence,
43:25.0
this is the other thing
43:25.8
we keep on hearing, no?
43:27.7
approval ratings.
43:28.9
There are surveys
43:30.0
of even his post-presidential
43:31.6
approval ratings.
43:32.3
Although I find that interesting.
43:33.3
Is it the approval
43:34.2
of his fashion statement
43:35.3
or his rhetorical skills?
43:37.0
But I know what they mean.
43:38.4
may enduring popularity.
43:40.8
crazy numbers, right?
43:41.9
Eight, nine out of ten
43:43.5
I think no Filipino president.
43:45.2
I cannot think of any
43:46.0
president in the world.
43:49.7
Yeah, possibly Lula.
43:50.7
Yeah, I can only think of Lula
43:53.6
if he steps down.
43:54.9
Yeah, Modi, yeah.
43:57.0
it's a Modi-Lula level.
44:00.6
some people are saying,
44:02.6
parang square that
44:04.0
with the fact that
44:04.9
there's a lot of openness
44:06.1
to toughness on China,
44:07.9
which for Duterte was,
44:11.1
Duterte wanted a strong
44:12.2
relationship with China.
44:14.3
majority want tougher
44:16.2
But surveys also say
44:17.1
that Duterte is very popular
44:18.9
so how do you reconcile that,
44:21.1
if on the ICC issue,
44:22.4
if he's so popular,
44:23.9
why doesn't majority of people
44:25.2
actually agree na
44:26.7
ay isang invasive species
44:28.0
in violation of our sovereignty?
44:30.9
the surveys are quite ambivalent,
44:33.2
there are layers of thinking
44:34.7
going on among our kababayan.
44:41.3
continues to be popular.
44:46.0
He's high among those
44:52.7
the family itself
44:55.8
to have a strong influence.
44:58.4
in the survey results,
45:02.6
at least in our internal surveys,
45:12.8
is on top of that list,
45:14.9
survey after that,
45:16.0
after survey that we've come out,
45:17.2
although we haven't published this,
45:22.2
common knowledge.
45:24.0
common knowledge.
45:24.7
She's the number one contender.
45:26.7
Elections were held today.
45:30.0
will be something that
45:31.9
is for Sara Duterte
45:35.8
when you look at the surveys.
45:37.4
Except in certain instances
45:38.6
when she's matched up with,
45:40.7
certain individuals.
45:41.8
But by and large,
45:45.1
it's her election
45:49.2
if elections were held today.
45:50.8
But we all know naman,
45:51.9
Alam naman natin,
45:52.5
matagal pa ang 2028.
45:53.8
Marami pwede magbago dyan.
46:00.0
Pero ngayon pa lang,
46:02.8
ma-influence siya pa
46:03.7
ang Duterte family.
46:04.9
Whether there's a question
46:07.1
endorsement power,
46:08.6
the president's still
46:12.0
there's a big argument
46:17.7
I wanted to mention that.
46:22.0
I really want to emphasize,
46:28.6
we're not Russia,
46:31.1
we were never a full-fledged autocracy.
46:33.5
let's be just brutally honest.
46:34.8
During the Gong's time,
46:35.5
we were kinda in what I call
46:38.4
if you look at the SWS service,
46:39.7
I don't know if you have,
46:41.1
you have done surveys,
46:41.9
there are a lot of surveys
46:42.6
that show a large plurality,
46:44.7
I think there was like
46:46.7
in the one SWS there
46:49.0
it's dangerous to publish
46:52.2
about the government.
46:53.7
that clearly tells me
46:55.1
a huge number of Filipino,
46:57.5
a huge plurality.
46:59.3
40% can be a president
47:01.8
last time I checked.
47:04.2
they're openly admitting
47:05.9
that they're not 100% sure
47:08.1
if they can be very honest
47:09.2
about what they're saying.
47:10.4
I know you coming from
47:13.4
you're saying that
47:13.8
that shouldn't undermine
47:17.0
We had Ronnie Holmes
47:20.0
all the mechanics
47:22.1
they used to make sure
47:22.9
na walang nagbabantay,
47:24.3
walang shadowing,
47:25.6
all of those things.
47:26.9
But at the same time,
47:27.6
what I'm saying is that
47:28.1
even if no one is shadowing you,
47:29.6
even if you are not
47:32.0
it's hard to imagine
47:33.8
that the fear of Duterte
47:36.9
the love for Duterte.
47:38.3
I know I'm getting
47:39.1
into political psychology already
47:40.8
and probably we have to bring
47:41.8
Monclerita Carlos here.
47:43.5
But I think there's
47:44.2
a lot of literature
47:45.4
or academic literature
47:46.4
on how fear and love
47:49.0
a distortionary effect.
47:52.1
a whole list of dictators.
47:54.0
Duterte is a dictator.
47:54.9
But I can give you
47:55.6
a whole list of dictators
47:56.5
with 90% approval rating
47:58.4
which didn't look
48:01.4
And then nung nawala na
48:02.8
suddenly opinions change.
48:04.8
Now, I'm not saying
48:05.6
Digong is a dictator.
48:08.6
distortionary effect
48:09.6
or at least has an effect
48:10.7
in terms of approval.
48:12.4
if you're gonna beat someone,
48:13.6
rather love that person, right?
48:15.3
dying right and left,
48:16.2
you have thousands of EJKs,
48:17.6
you'd rather love this person.
48:18.8
You'd rather not express.
48:20.7
not something that
48:22.1
survey guys want to hear.
48:24.1
disagrees with me a lot.
48:25.1
It's something worth studying.
48:25.8
But worth studying, yeah.
48:33.0
maybe three years,
48:46.7
we still have to back it up
48:47.8
with actual data, no?
48:50.5
But it runs against
48:51.5
what we're seeing now,
48:57.3
the numbers of Duterte,
48:59.8
for him as senator,
49:02.0
the continuing preference
49:03.7
the next president,
49:05.3
even constitutionally
49:06.4
indigenous support,
49:08.7
his endorsement power,
49:10.7
I don't think people fear him.
49:12.1
He's not to be feared now.
49:17.4
what the first quarter
49:19.6
as far as his numbers
49:24.5
still very influential
49:28.9
could even go up, no?
49:30.1
Because of what happened
49:30.9
over the last month or so.
49:32.7
Some people are gonna
49:33.5
take a hit in government.
49:36.3
So, is it possible
49:37.6
na hindi naman takot
49:39.3
lahat ng tao sa kanya?
49:41.4
a segment that is.
49:43.4
But if people still prefer him,
49:46.4
that he's not in power,
49:48.5
then it's not about fear,
49:52.4
it may be something else.
49:56.5
a paper written by
50:04.4
continue to be high, no?
50:09.0
people also should look into
50:10.4
why they continue to be stable
50:12.9
all throughout his administration,
50:14.9
despite the various
50:19.6
and general fact that,
50:22.6
he ended very badly.
50:24.1
the economy ended not with
50:25.4
development and democracy
50:27.0
but with death and death, no?
50:29.8
At the end of his,
50:31.7
But we see this all around, right?
50:33.8
Bolsonaro's number
50:34.6
didn't seem to go down.
50:35.7
Modi's number kept high.
50:37.4
we have a lot of comparative data
50:39.0
that shows you that
50:39.8
strongmen are very good
50:41.3
in actually doing
50:42.1
during crisis period.
50:43.4
as the line goes,
50:46.2
in the Game of Thrones,
50:47.4
chaos is a ladder.
50:48.6
Chaos is a ladder.
50:49.4
You can exploit those moments.
50:51.8
And I think this is where
50:52.7
also disinformation comes in,
50:54.6
narratives come in,
50:56.3
lahat na nangyaring
50:56.9
death and deaths.
50:57.8
You know, Richard,
51:00.8
3 million students
51:04.1
The free tertiary education,
51:08.5
during his administration
51:09.7
made his administration,
51:11.5
he never supported it truly.
51:13.0
And social spending
51:14.1
actually went up.
51:16.0
went up during the gong.
51:17.3
Infrastructure spending
51:18.2
went up during the gong.
51:19.7
Yeah, he did a lot
51:20.5
of good things also.
51:21.4
Of course, a lot of it
51:22.1
went to corruption, no?
51:23.2
But the thing is,
51:23.9
some work got done.
51:25.0
Wala akong sinabi dyan.
51:26.1
Wala akong sinabi dyan.
51:26.5
I know, you know,
51:28.2
Wala akong sinabi dyan.
51:30.7
Apparently, a lot of it was
51:31.8
went into, you know,
51:34.3
negative bureaucratic behavior.
51:36.1
Sige, let's put it that.
51:36.5
It's a structural friction.
51:39.8
But the thing is,
51:40.8
but the thing is,
51:41.9
a lot of people were employed.
51:49.0
of some nominal trickle down
51:50.9
as far as the economy
51:53.4
And then you have
51:54.3
this free tertiary education.
51:57.7
would have ensured
52:01.5
president of all time.
52:04.1
while we disagree
52:05.2
with his war on drugs,
52:07.0
most of the things
52:08.1
he did as president,
52:09.4
in terms of his style,
52:14.9
He did a lot of things,
52:15.5
populist as they are,
52:17.6
expensive as they are
52:18.8
to sustain today, no?
52:22.3
the current administration.
52:26.8
that are so expensive,
52:29.6
doubling of the salaries
52:30.6
of our military men
52:32.9
and the implications
52:37.6
these are all very expensive
52:40.1
that we inherited
52:40.8
from the 30s and 80s.
52:43.8
look at all of this together,
52:45.4
together with his war on drugs,
52:46.8
which, by the way,
52:50.9
the public perception
52:55.9
They have all that study.
52:58.3
when you put all of this together,
53:00.2
yes, there was fear,
53:02.1
to do certain things.
53:05.5
to a great extent,
53:07.2
for this administration
53:08.1
because they wanted
53:10.5
as far as those policies
53:16.1
was never popular anyway.
53:18.2
So, the president
53:19.2
and the new administration
53:21.0
in their new PIVOT.
53:27.1
to be more popular now
53:30.4
6 out of 10 Filipinos
53:32.5
the administration's position
53:34.5
in the West Philippine Sea.
53:39.1
where you're coming from.
53:39.6
all of those things together
53:42.4
I see a perfect way
53:44.8
that both of these
53:45.9
arguments could be correct.
53:47.5
let me be absolutely clear.
53:48.5
I disagree with people
53:50.0
this is a totally
53:51.2
manufactured popularity.
53:54.0
all around the world,
53:54.9
the median of other presidents
53:56.8
whether it's Aquino,
53:58.5
But, when superlative,
53:59.9
maybe that's where
54:00.5
the fear factor comes in.
54:01.8
You get what I'm saying?
54:04.3
It's the boost there.
54:06.3
It's the boost effect there.
54:09.9
to go say he's not.
54:10.6
I think he's genuinely popular.
54:12.2
But, the superlative numbers,
54:15.1
of that popularity,
54:16.3
I cannot separate it
54:17.3
from the fear factor.
54:18.1
That's all I'm saying.
54:19.8
speaking of the future,
54:21.2
we know that Sarah
54:22.0
has been in the lead,
54:23.0
but we know that other people
54:24.1
like Senator Tulfo,
54:25.2
we've seen some of the
54:27.1
we saw in SWA surveys.
54:28.2
You have put me on the spot,
54:29.6
No, you don't have to answer that.
54:31.0
No, what I'm saying is
54:32.0
it looks like a more
54:33.0
competitive field nowadays,
54:34.8
But, it also proves
54:36.1
because Tulfo is also
54:37.1
kind of a strong man aura,
54:39.9
it actually proves that
54:42.2
varieties of populism.
54:44.7
Do you get where I'm coming from?
54:46.5
Populism is really bad
54:47.5
for the country, Richard.
54:48.6
You do know that, no?
54:50.2
It's something we can sustain
54:52.0
on a programmatic basis.
54:54.0
It's something that
54:56.2
will undermine both
54:57.4
democracy and development.
54:59.6
we all have to speak up,
55:02.8
because, you know,
55:03.4
it's sometimes irrational.
55:06.4
tertiary education program,
55:07.7
although it's popular
55:08.6
and I won't be very popular
55:10.1
after I say this,
55:16.9
who are millionaires
55:17.6
get free education.
55:21.6
We can't sustain something
55:22.9
that's expensive.
55:26.0
that our socialized,
55:27.0
our flawed socialized
55:28.2
education program
55:30.3
or model in the UP
55:32.6
the best possible model
55:43.9
we don't deserve this.
55:45.6
Naka-Porsche pa nga yun,
55:48.5
Porsche pa nga yun.
55:49.1
I won't say which college.
55:50.6
One of my students
55:54.8
and it's almost criminal
55:56.1
for me to actually
55:58.4
but there's no way
55:59.1
for them to return it.
56:01.1
you become a good citizen,
56:03.9
serving your country,
56:05.2
I know it's very idealistic
56:07.5
you know me naman
56:09.1
That's how I end my classes.
56:10.7
It's really about
56:11.4
citizenship and leadership.
56:16.2
is probably more important
56:20.6
As far as governance
56:21.7
and democracy is concerned.
56:23.9
it's important for us
56:27.0
to get more engaged.
56:28.1
And I think it starts
56:30.1
with media people like you,
56:31.8
with academics like you
56:34.5
through knowledge.
56:36.8
I think survey companies
56:37.8
find a niche, no?
56:39.7
The more we inform,
56:42.1
the more empowered people
56:43.2
The better we do our work
56:46.6
with the best possible
56:47.9
methods being utilized,
56:50.9
we bring into the thing,
56:53.6
the more that surveys
56:56.3
In the life of our country.
56:57.6
So this is something
56:58.5
we all have to advocate
57:02.4
as members of organizations
57:08.7
it is what it is.
57:09.8
We're in interesting times,
57:12.1
For the first time,
57:16.1
that are outside of the country,
57:22.1
the parochialism,
57:25.1
that pervades our politics.
57:28.9
We have strong players
57:30.4
in the global arena.
57:32.5
The new Cold War.
57:33.6
We're kind of the Berlin
57:34.6
of the 21st century,
57:35.8
if I can put it that way.
57:37.3
We're caught in the middle, yeah.
57:39.7
And it's complex,
57:43.1
Extremely complex, no?
57:44.9
These are entities
57:46.4
that are driving the dynamics
57:48.3
at the domestic level.
57:49.9
And for the first time,
57:50.7
we really experienced,
57:51.8
oh, what, what, what, no?
57:53.6
And they're taking sides.
57:55.3
They're influencing.
57:56.5
And we have, as people,
57:58.5
to be conscious of this
57:59.6
and take charge, no?
58:01.6
Take back our politics
58:03.3
and play a more productive role
58:06.3
as far as democracy is concerned.
58:08.3
And that can only happen
58:09.3
if we inform, inform, inform
58:11.4
and empower people.
58:13.1
I believe in, you know,
58:14.2
an informed and educated
58:16.5
citizenry, you know.
58:20.2
stronger institutions.
58:21.6
it starts really with citizens.
58:25.3
OCTA is trying to do,
58:26.5
trying to be a part of
58:27.9
that movement of truth-telling
58:30.2
and truth-sharing.
58:32.6
Hopefully, we'll continue
58:34.8
in the years to come.
58:38.5
I want to put myself
58:40.5
kasi kanina medyo niligay.
58:43.7
I mean, what's kosmode.
58:45.1
I mean, something like
58:45.7
it's an illiberal
58:47.0
democratic response
58:48.3
to undemocratic liberalism.
58:52.7
I agree with you on that.
58:55.1
This is not coming out of nowhere.
58:56.6
I think it's partly
58:58.9
It's partly a desperation vote.
59:00.4
It's partly also people
59:01.6
trying something different.
59:02.7
It's ambivalence, right?
59:05.4
Marcos win or something like that?
59:08.7
And also the appeal
59:10.3
disciplinary politics.
59:11.4
You know, this whole,
59:12.2
Singapore model thing.
59:14.1
So, I think people
59:15.8
have to understand
59:16.4
that our critique of populism
59:17.9
doesn't necessarily mean
59:18.8
a full endorsement
59:19.8
of what came before it.
59:21.0
I think the two are connected.
59:22.7
There is a causality there.
59:25.0
Sigur, last point here.
59:26.2
Again, I don't want to
59:26.8
put you on the spot
59:27.3
because you're from
59:28.9
a political scientist.
59:30.4
What do you think
59:30.8
is the challenge now
59:31.5
for the opposition?
59:32.4
Because there's a lot of,
59:33.3
I mean, there's the
59:34.2
Duterte-Marcos fights
59:37.1
as far as opposition
59:39.8
nasa na opposition, right?
59:42.1
the basic question.
59:43.1
It's a more simple question.
59:44.6
Where's the opposition?
59:46.5
Somebody has obviously
59:48.2
being the opposition
59:49.6
but are they really
59:54.6
the opposition has to be
59:56.0
wherever they are.
59:57.3
Wherever they are.
59:58.3
Has to be more mindful
59:59.6
and more self-conscious
60:02.7
And the opposition has,
60:06.2
opposition of the last
60:09.5
It has to be around
60:11.8
and programs of government
60:13.2
at this point, no?
60:23.0
By all the groups.
60:24.8
Where the country is going,
60:26.5
who is it going to align with,
60:28.3
what are its values, no?
60:29.8
That have to be protected.
60:32.8
that is what will define
60:34.5
whoever is going to merge
60:35.8
as the opposition.
60:39.3
it doesn't seem clear
60:41.5
that there is a viable
60:42.8
or even a legitimate
60:47.5
And largely because
60:48.6
people have become quiet,
60:50.7
people have become parochial
60:53.6
began to accept, no?
60:55.7
The current dispensation.
60:57.1
But there is a window.
60:58.2
I think you understand
60:59.4
and I believe also
61:01.0
that there is a space
61:02.3
for progressive politics
61:05.1
And it really has to start
61:07.7
it has to be disciplined
61:13.0
eventually by an ideology.
61:14.9
I know I'm being idealistic here,
61:16.6
but once our politics
61:18.0
begins to be disciplined
61:20.1
platform and program,
61:22.0
then we can conceive, no?
61:23.7
Of alternatives, no?
61:24.8
And organization.
61:25.7
You need organization.
61:26.9
You need to legwork.
61:28.1
You need to legwork.
61:32.9
it's very possible
61:33.6
this administration
61:34.5
might become more yellow
61:35.7
than it ought to be,
61:38.2
it's turning out to become
61:39.8
and it's coming out
61:40.9
kind of an irony of sorts,
61:43.0
Well, that's a diglau theory, right?
61:44.9
Like, this is Aquino 2.0
61:46.5
or something like that.
61:47.6
Mas dilaw sa dilaw.
61:49.4
That's what's happening now.
61:52.1
if the president's wise,
61:55.2
that's the argument.
61:60.0
that's a counter-argument
62:01.2
to the Duterte argument,
62:04.9
Which is pretty clear,
62:06.8
Although it's not
62:07.8
very sophisticated,
62:10.0
And it has to go down,
62:12.5
go back to values, eh.
62:14.2
And I guess this is
62:16.0
with the campaign
62:18.8
It just totally negated, no?
62:21.0
That whole historical past
62:22.4
of being yellow, no?
62:24.0
And all that it stood for.
62:26.3
And watered it down
62:29.8
Which, in the end,
62:30.8
appropriated what was yellow
62:32.1
in the first place, no?
62:33.3
What am I trying to say here?
62:34.8
The opposition has to go back
62:39.0
It has to go back,
62:40.0
back to the values
62:41.1
it's been fighting for,
62:43.5
for the 21st century.
62:44.6
Yeah, but reinvent it, no?
62:46.8
it can't be the same
62:48.0
opposition of 2016, eh.
62:50.7
Iba na yung laruan ngayon, eh.
62:53.6
a hopeless case for them
62:54.9
because the current administration
62:56.1
is looking for allies.
62:57.9
And the current administration
63:06.4
Yeah, realignments.
63:07.2
For convenience, yeah, okay.
63:08.7
But the thing is,
63:09.3
that's what politics
63:12.2
the art of the possible.
63:14.5
And I think there's a space
63:17.1
of this administration
63:18.3
aligning with the yellows.
63:19.9
With the dilawan.
63:21.0
And how do you see,
63:24.4
success of people
63:25.2
like Riza Ontiveros,
63:26.3
very much progressive,
63:27.4
very much attached
63:28.2
to more left than liberal,
63:33.6
in a very, very tough race.
63:35.0
I mean, the Senate race
63:37.6
do you think that the Riza,
63:43.1
for the opposition also?
63:45.3
Or is it just Riza?
63:50.2
I think to a great extent,
63:52.2
it's the distinct style of Riza
63:54.5
and how she captured.
63:56.5
if we can recreate Riza
64:01.9
But what we do know
64:05.6
arguing a particular worldview,
64:10.8
a particular style of governance,
64:12.8
which apparently,
64:14.1
this administration can counter
64:18.6
presenting a counter-argument.
64:19.9
And that counter-argument
64:20.9
would require them to align
64:22.3
with the progressives
64:27.5
from people like Riza Ontiveros
64:30.4
and the so-called Dilawans.
64:33.2
I think there's a genuine opportunity
64:35.3
because of the situation
64:38.0
where the unique situation
64:38.8
is that Riza is not a progressive.
64:39.3
But we have to deal
64:41.7
playing, you know,
64:43.1
puppet master here.
64:45.2
That the progressives
64:46.9
and the administration
64:47.9
might find it convenient
64:50.3
to help each other
64:51.5
in the 2025 elections.
64:54.4
These are numbers
64:56.6
that might be formidable.
64:59.2
And people will see
65:00.5
the counter-argument there.
65:04.4
that counter has to be made stark
65:07.5
to our electorate.
65:08.8
Who are the pro-China,
65:10.1
who are the anti-China,
65:12.1
who are the pro-WPS,
65:14.0
who are the anti,
65:15.4
who are the people,
65:17.1
who are the gods,
65:17.9
who are the people,
65:19.2
who are the pro-human rights,
65:20.8
who are the anti.
65:21.8
These things can be made clear.
65:25.7
find its legitimacy
65:27.8
if the administration aligns
65:29.8
with truly progressive forces
65:31.6
who have a history of
65:33.4
advocating these values.
65:35.5
And I think there's an opportunity
65:36.7
for that in the 2025 elections.
65:38.8
If the administration is wise,
65:40.8
they're not going to go
65:41.4
with their regular slate.
65:43.2
They're going to be
65:45.7
who will shock us.
65:48.9
But then again...
65:49.9
I'm not sure we're going to be shocked.
65:51.5
I mean, this is Philippines.
65:52.9
Alam naman natin.
65:55.2
But if the progressives are wise,
65:59.3
they'll take up the opportunity,
66:01.5
the tactical alliance.
66:03.2
Because it would mean
66:04.0
preventing certain forces
66:05.4
from coming into power again.
66:08.1
thank you very much
66:09.1
to Professor Ranjit Rai
66:10.8
of UP Department of Political Science.
66:14.7
the president of the OCTA
66:17.8
which has been doing
66:20.1
I'm very glad that we had...
66:21.5
I mean, one hour.
66:22.4
Parang wala lang yung one hour sa atin
66:23.9
dahil madal-dala mga academics.
66:25.6
But I hope, Professor...
66:26.9
I'm very proud of you, Richard.
66:28.0
As my student doing this show.
66:30.2
And I also want to let the people know
66:31.9
these are my personal opinions.
66:33.9
Not the opinions of OCTA
66:35.1
or the university I belong to.
66:37.4
And I'm very happy
66:39.0
that you invited me in the show.
66:41.0
Hopefully, we'll have more banter
66:43.4
and discussion in the future.
66:45.2
I hope this is a good warm-up.
66:47.1
So, expecting that hopefully
66:48.3
we'll have more of you
66:49.8
gracing our little show here
66:51.5
to discuss next big surveys.
66:53.4
Kasi, nga, I think
66:54.2
people's appetites has been
66:56.0
wedded by yung idea na
66:58.5
maybe the next survey ganito,
67:00.1
So, the trend lines are very important
67:01.8
to make a proper political analysis.
67:03.7
Maraming salamat, Professor.
67:05.2
And have a good day.
67:06.2
I know you're very busy.
67:07.4
Bring texts and all of that.
67:08.4
I'm sure maraming nagtatakot sa'yo.
67:10.0
But I appreciate it.
67:10.6
Thanks for inviting me
67:12.1
and good luck with your show.
67:13.7
God bless and talk to you soon, sir.
67:17.6
A forward ko once finalized version
67:22.1
Great. Fantastic.
67:23.0
By the way, naka-live pa tayo dito.
67:24.9
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
67:25.5
They can still hear you.
67:28.7
I'll say bye-bye.
67:34.0
Thank you very much.
67:34.7
I hope na appreciate nyo.
67:35.7
This was, of course,
67:36.7
we had Ronnie Holmes
67:37.3
of Pulse Asia before.
67:39.4
we had Professor Ranjit Rai
67:41.8
of Ronnie Holmes.
67:43.5
Of course, my colleague in LaSalle.
67:44.6
Professor Ranjit Rai naman
67:45.6
of my former professor in UP.
67:47.0
Siya naman nag-head
67:47.7
ngayon ng OCTA Research
67:49.4
all of you are familiar with.
67:51.6
walang personahan
67:53.0
kung hindi kayo nag-agwi
67:54.0
sa surveys, et cetera.
67:56.2
Sometimes gusto nyo yung survey.
67:57.4
Sometimes hindi nyo yung gusto.
67:58.7
Pero dapat pag-usapan natin ito.
68:00.8
thank you very much, guys.
68:01.6
And talk to you soon.
