00:35.0
So, I hope that, yeah, is that better?
00:37.5
Yeah, yeah, that's it.
00:38.8
Yeah, you can just go down.
00:41.8
Yeah, let's go down.
00:45.0
Yes, one more, one more.
00:49.2
No, no, you may sit now, Richard.
00:50.7
Yeah, okay, yeah, that's it.
00:52.3
No, no, can you go up?
00:53.0
Yeah, that's it, that's it.
00:54.4
No, can you go up?
00:56.8
Page one, Richard.
01:00.5
Second, yeah, second page.
01:01.8
I'm sorry, second page.
01:07.2
Yeah, that should be good.
01:09.8
Interesting findings.
01:12.7
So, the basic question is,
01:14.6
are you pro-Marcos?
01:16.5
So, the statement which best describes you
01:20.2
is the way we ask the question.
01:23.2
And I support President Marcos and his administration, 31%.
01:26.9
I support the debate.
01:28.4
The Duterte family and their political alliance.
01:31.2
We classify them as pro-Duterte.
01:34.4
I support the opposition.
01:38.3
we didn't define the opposition to our interviewees
01:41.0
as just the Liberal Party.
01:42.6
We just said that, you know,
01:43.8
this may include the left and the Liberal Party
01:48.3
or the traditional opposition.
01:51.1
But that generated a support of 4%.
01:53.7
So, but then this is quite surprising.
01:58.5
We call them independents in the study.
02:01.3
I do not support the Marcos administration,
02:04.2
the Duterte family and the opposition.
02:07.6
And those ambivalent, 15.
02:10.8
Meaning, they refused.
02:12.7
So, ang laki ng anti-system, if I can put it that way.
02:15.8
Yeah, that's right.
02:18.4
No, but this is a space where the opposition can build on.
02:23.0
Yeah, this is a space also that will be up for grabs.
02:26.3
If you're part of the Duterte alliance,
02:29.6
building the new opposition in their view.
02:32.5
And of course, the Marcos administration
02:33.9
was trying to solidify their base.
02:37.3
So, where do we locate the Marcoses,
02:40.9
the pro-Marcos support?
02:42.3
It's largely in the National Capital Region.
02:48.5
They're not very strong at this particular time.
02:52.0
In Mindanao, 17% lang sa kanila.
02:56.1
their base of support is D&E.
02:59.7
So, when you go to the Duterte family,
03:02.9
20% of adult Filipinos
03:06.0
support the Duterte family.
03:10.1
Their base is really Mindanao, 53%.
03:12.3
You can see naman, oh.
03:13.9
So, talagang may hold sila sa lugar na yan.
03:18.1
And probably, the low numbers in Mindanao
03:20.8
is because of the feud, right?
03:23.1
after the feud coming out,
03:24.6
I mean, we can see that in,
03:26.4
the other side survey on the presidential balls,
03:29.3
ang baba lahat dun sa Mindanao.
03:31.2
And then, dun sa preference also for the president,
03:33.3
laki ng baksak ni Marcos sa Mindanao.
03:36.4
You're correct, Richard.
03:37.9
yung ibang probes natin on trust and approval,
03:42.3
bumagsak talaga yung support sa Mindanao
03:45.0
kaala kay President Marcos.
03:47.2
So, it's consistent, no?
03:49.3
And when you look at the base of support,
03:52.9
it's really Class E.
03:57.8
which is significant.
03:58.6
It's high sila sa Class E, no?
03:60.0
Both of them are 30%.
04:01.3
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
04:02.6
Yung mga sa Pilinla is almost identical, yeah.
04:06.1
Yeah, pero mas malaki si
04:07.4
yung pro-Marcos group sa Class D,
04:09.3
which is the big chunk of higher.
04:11.2
which is 55 to 50%.
04:12.2
For voting population, yeah, yeah.
04:14.2
So, even of the population in general,
04:16.6
adult Filipino population.
04:19.5
So, those who do not support
04:20.7
is still a huge chunk, no?
04:22.7
And those who refuse to,
04:28.0
who are ambivalent, basically.
04:31.4
we classify them as independents.
04:34.5
And you'll notice the base of support.
04:36.6
Can you go down to the last three slides?
04:39.4
Yeah, it's just at the bottom.
04:42.8
We can, if you can,
04:47.0
Okay ka pala sa Zoom.
04:48.2
Sure, pwede ka pala.
04:50.2
Partner pala tayo.
04:51.2
Pwede tayo partner sa presentation.
04:54.8
I'm the one who's the partner.
04:54.9
I'm the one who's the research assistant.
04:57.6
Gawin niyo na lang ako sa,
04:59.6
But look at these numbers.
05:02.6
You look at the male.
05:03.8
The demographic supporting.
05:08.7
this is how it's spread.
05:10.4
You know, the regional,
05:11.5
we know that already.
05:13.0
it's almost the same.
05:14.1
Yeah, for the Marcos vote.
05:16.0
The pro-Marcos support,
05:22.4
But look at the age group.
05:24.9
They're pretty balanced.
05:36.6
there's lots of support.
05:38.9
And you'll be surprised, no?
05:45.7
hindi pa naman ako dito
05:47.1
sa age group na ito.
05:47.9
Pero alam mo yun,
05:54.9
but I think interesting yun
05:59.1
educational background
06:00.1
ng Marcos supporter, no?
06:04.4
So, you'll see that
06:05.9
a big chunk of them
06:07.1
are from high school,
06:13.0
but not surprising,
06:14.1
Iglesia na Cristo
06:14.7
is a big, you know,
06:15.6
when you look at the religious breakdown,
06:20.6
And then, of course,
06:22.3
you look at the ethnic,
06:24.4
ethnic support, no?
06:27.0
It's basically Ilocano-Tagalog, no?
06:30.9
There's a very small,
06:32.2
there's a very strong
06:33.1
Cebuano support pa rin.
06:38.5
Wasn't it found by an Ilocano?
06:40.8
Ito hindi nga lang.
06:42.0
I was just reading lang
06:42.9
about Isabelo de los Reyes
06:44.2
and then agli pa yan.
06:45.2
But the chunks there
06:47.1
are Roman Catholic,
06:49.3
so meaning in the terms
06:50.7
of the actual percentage
06:53.9
as far as the population
06:57.0
very interesting.
06:58.3
Interesting, yeah?
07:02.5
the Delta family.
07:12.0
the support is very different
07:13.4
as far as the age groups
07:19.8
the big supporters
07:23.1
Sixty-six percent?
07:26.5
when you look at the religious support.
07:28.3
There's a Mindanao factor there
07:29.8
because most of the
07:30.4
Mindao factors are Mindanao.
07:33.1
So, Mindanao is also
07:34.2
their base of support.
07:41.2
What's the number?
07:46.2
sino tong one percent
07:47.2
na may Ilocano toto?
07:49.4
I'm gonna research them.
07:51.7
Pagod kayo sa akin.
07:53.1
Uwi ako ng bagay soon.
08:01.5
this is a snapshot.
08:11.9
these two political families.
08:14.1
And why they were also
08:21.2
you can understand
08:22.0
their base of support.
08:23.6
if they're united,
08:26.2
there will be a lot of continuity
08:27.6
as far as government
08:28.6
and politics is concerned.
08:31.4
they're bifurcated
08:36.0
and personal interests,
08:37.6
but also along policy lines.
08:39.0
We also know that,
08:41.6
it's become the great divide
08:43.6
between the families.
08:46.2
very supportive of China.
08:48.7
not as supportive.
08:53.9
is that yours or mine?
08:57.5
probably is yours,
09:00.9
This is very important
09:04.1
before we talk about
09:06.4
and the reason why
09:07.2
I find it very interesting,
09:08.8
aside from the fact na
09:09.9
meron mga sub-demographics,
09:11.9
this reminds us of the,
09:15.5
kasi kung titignan mo dito,
09:19.6
are either undecided,
09:23.1
traditional opposition,
09:25.0
pag sinama mo yung dalawa,
09:29.7
roughly half of the voters
09:31.3
are up for grabs,
09:33.9
to Dirt and Marcos.
09:37.5
This is actually very important
09:38.7
if you look at it that way.
09:40.7
someone consolidates them
09:42.4
into a third force.
09:44.4
If you're running
09:45.9
for the midterms,
09:47.6
this is important
09:50.4
But this is not surprising.
09:51.6
They're not very strong.
09:53.1
The administration
09:53.9
is not very strong
09:58.5
but the thing is,
09:59.5
they can consolidate.
10:01.1
the independents,
10:03.0
are still in balance
10:04.3
with Zon Visayas.
10:07.1
that's up for grabs,
10:11.0
this is something
10:12.4
that the administration
10:15.3
eventually becomes,
10:18.0
or takes control of it,
10:20.2
however it evolves,
10:23.1
we'll have to work on.
10:28.5
who did not respond,
10:29.7
that's around 45%
10:31.6
So, up for grabs.
10:35.2
very, very helpful.
10:36.2
Thank you so much.
10:38.2
I'll just call you
10:40.6
we want to have you
10:41.9
sa first name basis na lang.
10:49.2
I found nothing shocking
10:50.6
in terms of numbers
10:55.4
Mga hudas ganyan.
10:56.6
I'm just kidding.
10:58.4
No, kasi I was just in Baguio,
11:00.1
Last week before I flew into US
11:01.6
and ang dami mga bumpers.
11:03.9
Where are you now?
11:04.3
Where are you now?
11:05.1
Where are you now?
11:06.0
I'm in Berkeley now.
11:10.0
Kaya may time zone natin.
11:11.6
It's nighttime or late?
11:13.1
It's 9pm right now.
11:15.0
Okay, that's nice.
11:16.2
Thank you so much
11:17.0
for agreeing to morning
11:20.7
Senator Trillianis back again
11:22.3
also on our show.
11:23.7
Pero ganyan niya.
11:24.6
So that's gonna be like
11:26.6
So medyo you're gonna see
11:27.5
more sabog version of me.
11:30.3
5am is not my time talaga eh.
11:32.4
But thank you so much
11:35.8
can we look at the big picture now?
11:37.6
And also dito sa independence.
11:39.1
What is your read
11:39.9
dito sa independence?
11:40.7
Because I also find this
11:41.5
very interesting.
11:44.9
Pilipinos who are still,
11:49.6
they may have actually
11:53.7
the question is not crafted,
11:58.4
a lot of improvement
12:00.4
medyo generic pa siya.
12:04.7
we have to improve
12:09.7
this was not developed
12:12.2
so the client-based.
12:13.3
The client suggested
12:21.8
Out of operation.
12:24.3
to improve the validity
12:27.6
we can break this down
12:30.5
We try to find out.
12:34.2
the administration
12:35.4
groups that they want
12:40.2
And that's also good,
12:43.0
is not bifurcated
12:44.7
by just two families.
12:45.7
Although a big chunk
12:59.4
they want to support
13:02.7
But we also included
13:03.8
the opposition kasi.
13:08.5
the Liberal Party
13:10.9
traditional opposition
13:18.8
but one could also
13:19.8
argue there's a divide,
13:24.1
And those who do not.
13:28.7
is that it reaffirms
13:29.8
all these old images
13:31.5
government and politics,
13:34.5
it's very personal,
13:38.4
ethnic cleavages,
13:43.1
of the party system,
13:45.5
The non-existence of it
13:46.9
has not disciplined
13:48.9
has made our politics
13:56.0
stronger parties,
14:05.4
Instead of just families,
14:06.9
But I think a lot
14:11.7
consistent images,
14:15.0
politics seems to be.
14:18.4
and the 40 percent
14:21.7
That's a huge number.
14:23.6
I think I'm more optimistic
14:25.2
cautiously more optimistic
14:26.3
in the sense that
14:28.7
that we discussed today
14:31.0
of the picture, right?
14:34.2
particularly continuity
14:35.3
in terms of appeal
14:41.6
both of us argued that
14:43.1
forget about differences
14:44.0
between Dutertes and Tulfos,
14:45.2
the Tulfo brothers
14:45.9
themselves are extremely
14:46.8
different from each other,
14:49.8
two very different
14:53.0
is much more independent
14:55.3
Let's see with Erwin
14:58.0
the administration.
14:58.8
And then Ben Tulfo
14:60.0
different conversation,
15:02.2
But at the same time,
15:03.2
I think the second survey
15:04.0
was very interesting
15:04.7
because almost half
15:12.7
there's hope for change.
15:19.9
continuity and change
15:22.7
being shown by the survey.
15:24.5
Although the data
15:25.8
to make solid arguments,
15:28.0
there's always that
15:28.7
us taking ourselves
15:30.1
out of the survey
15:31.4
the general trajectory
15:32.7
of Philippine politics.
15:33.8
There is a trajectory
15:38.2
sense of continuity
15:39.4
as far as government
15:40.3
and politics are concerned,
15:41.2
but there is always
15:43.6
that element of change
15:49.2
to be aggressive,
15:50.1
who align themselves
15:57.2
democracy and development
15:58.6
can actually happen
16:00.6
if we all work together.
16:03.0
that movement there.
16:07.0
hopefully that movement
16:08.0
will have more voice
16:13.4
And we hope to see
16:16.5
more survey numbers
16:18.9
pointing out to this
16:19.7
progressive movement
16:21.1
taking hold of our politics.
16:24.2
thank you very much,
16:27.0
I'm a little tired here.
16:28.2
I'm a little tired.
16:30.8
Go to sleep first.
16:32.7
Sleep in preparation
16:34.4
for the Senator Trillanes interview.
16:37.8
There's so much going on.
16:38.8
I still have to write
16:41.4
in West Philippine CNL.
16:42.7
So, thank you so much,
16:44.4
This was very helpful data.
16:46.7
I'm going to refer this
16:48.9
in future lectures,
16:51.7
We hope to have you again
16:52.7
in the near future
16:55.4
as more interesting surveys,
16:58.5
designed surveys come in
17:00.4
I can see you're hedging
17:03.3
in a social scientist way,
17:05.7
but I want to jump
17:06.9
into conclusions.
17:09.2
at least we have something
17:11.0
before we can make
17:13.4
or more than hopefully
17:14.3
conjectural political analysis.
17:16.2
Thank you very much,
17:16.9
Professor Ranjit Rai
17:17.6
from OCTA Research.
17:19.6
University of the Philippines
17:20.7
Total Science Department
17:23.5
Thank you, Richard.
17:25.4
to all those who watched
17:28.5
God bless and have a good day,
